As Ukraine enters its third winter of war, which may prove to be the most challenging yet, the government in Kyiv is considering, for the first time, tough compromises with Russia, reports Der Spiegel..
The Ukrainian government is contemplating a scenario for ending the war with Russia that would involve a temporary revision of its declared objective to reclaim all territory currently under occupation, the German publication Der Spiegel reported over the weekend.
Citing an anonymous official from Kyiv, the magazine states that serious discussions have begun in Ukraine regarding the potential abandonment of the goal to reclaim approximately 20% of the country’s territory held by Russia.
‘We believed that victory meant the unconditional surrender of Putin’s Russia,’ said the official, acknowledging that Kyiv had a ‘misguided vision of victory.’ He noted that a peace agreement to end the war would also need to be ‘favorable to Russia’ and would be impossible without concessions.
According to Der Spiegel, these discussions are taking place against a backdrop of increasing signs of fatigue among Ukrainians.The initial optimism triggered by Ukraine’s unexpected incursion into the Kursk region of southwestern Russia in August has dissipated, while Russia has continued its ‘slow but seemingly relentless’ advance in eastern Ukraine.
‘Regardless of whether Trump or Harris wins, the Americans will slowly but surely withdraw’
The uncertainty surrounding the continuation of American support for Ukraine, regardless of who wins the upcoming U.S.presidential election in November, is also a factor contributing to pessimism, Der Spiegel reported.
‘Regardless of whether Trump or Harris wins, the Americans will slowly but surely withdraw,’ said the official cited by the German magazine, adding that people ‘no longer really want to fight,’ at a time when Ukraine faces a challenging and potentially decisive third winter of war.
While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly emphasized that Kyiv’s objective is to liberate all internationally recognized Ukrainian territories currently held by Russia, The Financial Times reported earlier in October that a ‘West German’ model for ending the war—which would see Ukraine abandon its goal of reclaiming territories occupied by Russia through military means in exchange for NATO membership—’is gaining traction’ within official circles.
Some of Ukraine’s allies are beginning to agree as well.In September, Czech President Petr Pavel told the New York Times that Ukraine needs to be ‘realistic’ about its prospects for reclaiming the territory occupied by Russia and that the war will likely end with some Ukrainian territory remaining under Russian control.
There are also forces opposed to negotiating with Russia
The issue is that optimism and resilience among Ukrainians are gradually declining with each month of war.
In the first year of the conflict, according to a survey, 80% of Ukrainians still firmly believed in a Ukrainian victory.This year, that figure has dropped to 60%.
According to the International Institute of Sociology in Kyiv, the number of those willing to endure the war for the liberation of territories, regardless of its duration, has decreased from 72% to 63% just between May and September.
At the same time, the willingness to make compromises is on the rise, particularly among the youth, who may eventually be required to take up arms if the war drags on for years.If Ukraine were accepted into the EU and NATO, 47% of Ukrainians would agree to the freezing of the current frontline.
Simultaneously, Der Spiegel indicates that there are forces in the country that reject negotiations with Russia and could pose a problem for Zelensky if he is indeed seeking a compromise.Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fessenko estimated for Der Spiegel that opponents of such a compromise make up about one-third of the population.
He states that, like society, the military is also divided along these lines.
